Scientists are intensifying their watch on three active U.S. volcanoes—Alaska’s Great Sitkin and Mount Spurr, and Hawaii’s Kilauea—amid escalating seismic activity and increasing signs of potential eruptions. Great Sitkin has been elevated to “Watch” status, the third tier in the four-level alert system, following a series of minor earthquakes and lava emissions from its summit crater.
This spike has led experts to estimate a 50-50 chance of an eruption. Meanwhile, Kilauea erupted again on February 11—the ninth eruption since December 2024—launching lava 300 feet into the air within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. Although no homes have been affected so far, authorities are monitoring the situation closely due to potential ash plumes and the risk of airborne volcanic glass.
Rising Seismic Activity Sparks Concern
Scientists are observing a concerning increase in seismic disturbances beneath these three volcanoes, signaling possible changes in their internal dynamics. Earthquake swarms have grown more frequent and intense, suggesting that magma is moving closer to the surface—a key precursor to eruption. By using advanced equipment to monitor ground deformation and gas emissions, experts are detecting signs of heightened volcanic unrest. With little warning time possible, communities near these volcanoes are urged to remain vigilant and prepared.
Implications of Rising Magma Levels for Local Residents
The upward movement of magma beneath these volcanoes poses a serious threat to nearby communities. As pressure builds within the volcanic systems, the likelihood of eruption rises. This movement can also cause stronger quakes, toxic gas emissions, and surface deformation, all of which endanger infrastructure and public safety. Emergency officials warn that evacuations may become necessary and advise residents to have emergency plans ready and stay updated on the latest developments.
From Quiet to Concerning: Shifting Volcano Behavior
Previously considered relatively stable, Great Sitkin, Mount Spurr, and Kilauea are now showing unmistakable signs of reawakening. Elevated seismic activity, magma movement, and changes in gas emissions suggest that pressure is building beneath the surface. Scientists are actively using satellite technology and ground-based sensors to track these changes in real time. As the threat level grows, officials stress the importance of community readiness in the event of sudden volcanic activity.
Looking Back to Look Ahead: Lessons from Past Eruptions
To better predict future eruptions, scientists are examining historical eruption patterns from notable U.S. volcanoes. Events like the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and Kilauea’s long-running activity provide critical data about seismic and volcanic behavior. Recent activity at Great Sitkin, Mount Spurr, and Kilauea closely mirrors early warning signs seen in past eruptions. These parallels help researchers fine-tune prediction models and improve emergency response strategies, emphasizing the importance of historical context in modern volcanic monitoring.
How Scientists Predict Eruptions and Assess Risks
Using cutting-edge technology, volcanologists monitor a variety of indicators to assess eruption risks. Earthquake swarms signal magma movement, while sensors detect ground swelling or shifting that reveals increasing underground pressure. Changes in gas emissions and heat levels—captured via satellite imagery—further aid in identifying potential eruption points. These tools allow experts to provide timely, accurate risk assessments and inform emergency response efforts. With signs intensifying at the three volcanoes, scientists remain on high alert.
At-Risk Zones: Areas in the Path of Potential Eruptions
Researchers have mapped out critical risk zones surrounding the active volcanoes. In Alaska, Great Sitkin poses a significant threat to the Aleutian Islands, where ashfall could severely disrupt air travel and affect local communities. Mount Spurr’s proximity to Anchorage makes it particularly dangerous; an eruption could release ash clouds that interfere with aviation, damage infrastructure, and compromise air quality. Kilauea’s continuing eruptions within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park present ongoing risks from lava flows and toxic gases. Experts urge residents in these zones to stay prepared for rapid changes.
What’s Next: Possible Outcomes If Eruptions Occur
As seismic activity intensifies, the risk of eruption at these U.S. volcanoes remains elevated. Should any of the three erupt, communities could face a range of hazards, including fast-moving lava, thick ash clouds, noxious gases, and widespread disruption to daily life. Emergency response teams are developing contingency plans while scientists closely track volcanic behavior. Although the exact timing remains uncertain, officials emphasize that staying informed and ready is the best defense against potential disaster.