A new poll has revealed what could happen in a hypothetical 2028 presidential race between Donald Trump and Barack Obama—two of the most recognisable political figures in modern U.S. history.
Donald Trump, having secured the White House once again in 2024, has continued to stir speculation around the idea of running for a third term. Despite the clear restrictions of the U.S. Constitution, talk among his allies and supporters has refused to die down.
Trump is currently only the second Republican to have won the popular vote since 1988 and remains an influential force in American politics. His 2024 campaign, marked by controversy, legal battles, and relentless media scrutiny, still resulted in victory. And while he’s not yet completed his current term, many within his inner circle have floated the idea of a return bid in 2028.
Speaking to NBC News earlier this year, Trump said: “A lot of people want me to do it. But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.”
But the major hurdle is, of course, the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which clearly states that no person can be elected president more than twice. Changing that rule would require a constitutional amendment—a feat requiring approval by two-thirds of both chambers of Congress and ratification by three-quarters of U.S. states.
Still, the hypothetical scenario has sparked debate among political analysts and voters alike. If the restriction were lifted, who would be a suitable opponent?
The name most commonly mentioned in contrast to Trump is Barack Obama, who served as the 44th president from 2009 to 2017. Since leaving office, Obama has maintained high approval ratings and remains a symbolic figure for many Democrats. He has, however, shown no signs of seeking a return to political office.
The idea of an Obama comeback remains purely theoretical, given the same constitutional limits that would currently block Trump. But in a landscape where traditional boundaries are constantly being tested, such hypotheticals continue to make headlines.
To explore public opinion on this imagined showdown, J.L. Partners and the Daily Mail conducted a poll of 1,013 registered U.S. voters. Participants were asked who they would support in a direct head-to-head contest between the two former presidents.
The findings provide a revealing snapshot of current voter sentiment across key demographics.
Obama saw especially strong support among Hispanic voters, with 73 percent expressing a preference for the former president. Among Black voters, 68 percent said they would back Obama over Trump.
Other demographics were more divided. Older white voters leaned more toward Trump, as did respondents without college degrees—a group that helped deliver Trump victories in both 2016 and 2024.
Interestingly, the poll also gauged how Trump might fare against other prominent Democrats. The results showed that Trump would narrowly defeat both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in separate hypothetical matchups. The polling comes amid continued scrutiny over Biden’s health and recent questions surrounding his cognitive sharpness.
Psychologist Dr. John Gartner recently commented on the president’s behaviour during campaign events and interviews, telling The Guardian: “What we see are the classic signs of dementia, which is gross deterioration from someone’s baseline and function. If you go back and look at film from the 1980s, [Trump] actually was extremely articulate.”
Despite the constitutional restrictions, the prospect of a Trump vs. Obama contest has ignited interest because of their contrasting legacies, leadership styles, and deeply divided political bases.
In the poll’s ultimate finding, Barack Obama led Donald Trump by a margin of 52 percent to 41 percent.
Though neither man could legally run again under current laws, the poll underscores how the American electorate still views both Trump and Obama as defining figures in the nation’s political future—real or imagined.